AI company Anthropic reportedly told investors at a private meeting that its revenue reached $16.8 billion in the third quarter of 2026. That was about 45% higher than the previous quarter and more than 3.6 times its full-year 2025 revenue. But growth has cooled from the more than 140% reported in the second quarter, raising questions about how the slowdown could affect the valuation of its IPO, expected in November.
Revenue keeps growing, but growth is cooling
At $16.8 billion, quarterly revenue is already enormous. And at more than 3.6 times its full-year 2025 revenue, the figure shows how the business has moved to a new scale in just over a year.
But investors are looking at more than just scale. In the second quarter, demand for Claude Code, its developer tool, surged, driving growth of more than 140% from the previous quarter. That has now slowed to 45%. Put the numbers side by side, and the deceleration is obvious.
One explanation is that workloads tend to decline in the summer, along with consumption of “tokens,” the units used to measure the amount of text processed by AI. In addition, OpenAI launched a powerful competing product, Astra, in September, while Anthropic reportedly did not respond with its rival model, Opus 5.5, until late that month. The quarter may have been shaped by a combination of seasonal factors and competition.
Revenue size and growth momentum are measured on separate gauges. Even if the speed drops, the distance already covered is on a completely different scale. At an IPO, investors will scrutinize that speedometer.
Inference economics emerge as AI’s next business focus
One detail in the report that should not be overlooked is the profit figure. Anthropic’s adjusted operating margin was 11% from the start of the year through the third quarter. It reportedly posted adjusted profits for two consecutive quarters and generated positive cash flow.
The company also reportedly generated $1.70 in revenue for every dollar it spent on compute resources, such as servers and GPUs, in the third quarter. That figure points to the potential to make money from inference—the process of responding to prompts with AI models. Even as price competition continues, models that have completed training can generate profits. That would be an encouraging sign for the AI industry.
However, this profit margin is an “adjusted” measure that excludes major expenses such as stock-based compensation. Model-training costs and labor expenses remain substantial, and open-weight models—whose weights are publicly available for anyone to use—could still replace paid models such as Claude. A reasonable assessment is that a path to profitability is starting to come into view.
Anti-distillation measures and price competition threaten revenue
Another issue is “distillation,” a technique in which other companies collect large volumes of output from existing AI systems and use it to train their own models. Anthropic reportedly estimates that 5% to 7% of its revenue is related to distillation.
The company has repeatedly raised concerns about imitation by Chinese AI companies and others, but it recently introduced effective countermeasures. It reportedly told investors that the measures are expected to weigh on revenue in the near-term quarter.
That is a decision that comes with short-term pain. Over the longer term, however, it could make it harder for competitors to match Claude’s quality. Giving up a few percentage points in the near term to protect the asset of model superiority is a bold move just ahead of an IPO, but it may also reflect a focus on the business’s long-term durability.
Pressure from price competition is also significant. Price-cutting battles with OpenAI, Google and others have continued for months, while open models are closing the performance gap. When revenue growth slows, this competitive environment can have a greater effect on valuation.
IPO valuation hinges on business durability beyond revenue
The IPO is reportedly planned for November, before Thanksgiving. It is seen as the biggest test yet of investor appetite for the AI boom.
Anthropic’s valuation in private markets reached $965 billion in May, up from less than $20 billion two years ago. Some bankers reportedly floated a $2 trillion valuation at the time of the IPO.
But some investors were reportedly disappointed by the latest figures. The absence of an annualized revenue figure for September—based on extending the most recent revenue pace over a full year—or a full-year outlook appears to have reinforced caution. Annualized revenue was reported at $65 billion as of July. Several investors believe the lead banks could lower their valuation expectations to below $1.5 trillion.
The market environment is not particularly favorable, either. Inflation remains stubbornly high, and borrowing costs are rising. Public opinion on AI is more negative than positive, and unresolved cybersecurity risks remain.
Even so, as models improve, AI continues to find its way into everyday office work, with usage trending upward rather than declining. The question is whether revenue growth can sustain the profits and competitive edge needed to justify a massive valuation, even as growth slows. The November IPO will be the moment of truth. Note, however, that valuation figures and investor reactions are projections based on media reports, not confirmed information.
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